Healthy natural gas assessment - how Pakistan progress?

• Author: Kazmi, S. Kamal Hayder

Byline: S. Kamal Hayder Kazmi

International experts recorded that world consumption of natural gas for industrial uses rises by an average of 1.7 percent/year, and natural gas consumption in the electric power sector rises by 2.2 percent/year, from 2012 to 2040. The industrial and electric power sectors together account for 73 percent of the total rise in world natural gas consumption, and they account for about 74 percent of total natural gas consumption through 2040. Consumption of natural gas rises in every IEO region, with demand in nations outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (non-OECD) increasing more than twice as fast as in the OECD. The strongest growth in natural gas consumption is projected for the countries of non-OECD Asia, where economic growth leads to increased demand.

Statistics showed that natural gas consumption in the non-OECD region increases by an average of 2.5 percent/year from 2012 to 2040, compared with 1.1 percent/year in the OECD countries. As a result, non-OECD countries account for 76 percent of the total world increment in natural gas consumption, and their share of world natural gas use grows from 52 percent in 2012 to 62 percent in 2040.

Experts also identified that to meet the growing natural gas demand projected, the world's natural gas producers increase supplies by nearly 69 percent from 2012 to 2040. The largest increases in natural gas production from 2012 to 2040 occur in non-OECD Asia (18.7 Tcf), the Middle East (16.6 Tcf), and the OECD Americas (15.5 Tcf). In China alone, production increases by 15.0 Tcf as the country expands development of its shale resources. The United States and Russia rise natural gas production by 11.3 Tcf and by 10.0 Tcf, respectively. Total natural gas production in China, the United States, and Russia accounts for nearly 44 percent of the overall increase in world natural gas production. Furthermore, world LNG trade more than doubles, from about 12 Tcf in 2012 to 29 Tcf in 2040.

In the developing country like Pakistan, natural gas is a critical input in Pakistan's economy for numerous industries, including the power generation, commercial, fertilizer and transport sectors, among others. For Prime Minister Imran Khan's government, using more natural gas serves a broader purpose as well: lessening the country's reliance on furnace oil, a more expensive energy source per unit that inflates the import bill, particularly when dollar-denominated oil...