Figures In Provisional Budget Extremely Fluid: Experts.

ISLAMABAD -- Economic experts have noted that figures in the provisional budget 2022-23 are extremely fluid and would not remain the same in the final budget that will be approved at the end of the month.

They stated that the political instability, which is coinciding with the economic instability, has created a critical situation for efficient budget planning and approval. This was observed during a hybrid seminar titled 'The Federal Budget 2022-23: A Review', organised by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) to evaluate the federal budget for the next fiscal year and its economic direction through the lens of policy.

Dr Pervaiz Tahir, former chief economist Planning Commission of Pakistan, was of the view that the present budget indicates no seriousness and philosophy behind its preparation. He noted that despite setting growth targets, Pakistan is not moving towards growth because of inherent challenges and limitations in its economic structure. Many problems and challenges would continue to exist for some time before actual growth is visible. He further pointed out certain challenges including the low long-term investment rate and direction of the growth target. Confronting the criticisms made on low growth rate of five per cent, he stated that a growth rate beyond 6% can create a crisis for Pakistan. Talking about the role of the IMF in budget approval or planning, he said that Pakistan would have been in a different position if it had done its planning without the intervention and role of the IMF.

Zaheeruddin Dar, founder, Centre for International Entrepreneurship and Trade, pointed out that it is too early to visualize the effect and outcome of this budget as the figures are expected to change and the actual picture will become evident at the end of the fiscal year through closing accounts. He stated that Pakistan is already going through a default state in terms of balance of payments, but has not announced it. This is because by doing so, it is the elite class that would have to pay the price, while in the current scenario it is the poor who are paying the price. Sharing his insights on tax evasion, he elaborated how the collection is increasing every year, only to result in a declining tax-to-GDP ratio. He said that the capacity to pay taxes is decreasing every year, resulting in a continuous increase in tax rates, a decrease in tax-to-GDP ratio, and decreased economic activity. He also highlighted the ignorance of the...