FALLING OIL PRICES, BIGGEST THREAT TO US SHALE PRODUCERS.

Byline: SHABBIR H. KAZMI

The week ended on 13th March 2020 can be termed one of horrific weeks for crude oil producers and traders as prices went down about 50 percent since the start of the year.

Oil rebounded a bit on Friday following movement in the US Congress to pass a coronavirus economic relief bill. Nevertheless, the near-term looks dire for oil markets, with supply rising quickly as demand continues to collapse. The added threat is likely hike in output by OPEC and Russia.

Analysts anticipate oil prices to remain at current depressed levels for months amid a price war and the fight for market share. They fear WTI Crude prices to hover around US$30/barrel in the near term. On Friday, WTI traded at US$33, but down by a massive 25 percent on the week for what is shaping up to be the worst week for oil prices since the financial crisis in 2008. Brent prices are also likely to remain range bond in the near term.

After the collapse of the OPEC+ production cut deal, major banks slashed their oil price forecasts, expecting an enormous oversupply in the market as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Russia are turning on the taps and looking out for their own interests instead of trying to fix the prices.

Goldman Sachs has warned oil price may plunge to US$20, Standard Chartered says WTI Crude will average just US$32 a barrel in 2020, and ING slashed its Q2 Brent Crude forecast to $33, from US$56, to name a few.

Saudi Arabia has promised to flood the oil market with an extra 2.6 million...