Election: early warnings.

GENERAL elections may be 16 months away if the existing legislatures complete their full five-year term but election season seems to have already hit the country. This is partly so because local government polls, after years of postponement on numerous pretexts, are taking place on court orders and because of the dogged persistence of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). KP completed its two-phase LG election relatively smoothly in March this year. The first phase of the Balochistan LG election involving 32 out of a total of 34 districts has also been completed under surprisingly peaceful conditions though there were apprehensions due to reports of possible violence by separatist militant groups which recently stepped up their activities by staging some high-profile attacks. LG elections in the remaining two districts of Balochistan, ICT, Sindh and Punjab are overdue and expected to be held in the next two to three months.

The current electoral scene is, however, tense. What has made the political environment extraordinarily tense is the simultaneous by-elections in 20 high-stakes constituencies of the Punjab provincial assembly next month. These constituencies had become vacant after PTI members were de-seated for defecting from their party to vote for Hamza Shehbaz Sharif, the PML-N candidate for chief minister. Since the sustainability of the Hamza Shehbaz government is dependent on the PML-N's victory in these constituencies and the PTI's popularity will also be tested in the constituencies which were won by the party in 2018, these elections have assumed extraordinary significance and the situation is getting tenser by the day as July 17 - the date of the by-elections - approaches.

An ugly incident involving an armed clash between the workers of two candidates in Lahore last week in one of the 20 constituencies has highlighted the rising political temperatures in the province. Although, fortunately, no fatality was reported, several workers were reportedly injured in the free exchange of fire involving automatic firearms. Both the candidates accompanied by their armed guards and supporters also came face to face at one point and it was only a miracle that no one was harmed.

Another election-related violent incident took place last week on the day of a by-election in Karachi for the NA-240 constituency that had become vacant after the death of an MQM-P MNA, Iqbal Mohammad Ali Khan. Although the PTI had decided to not contest this...