Economic Recovery Miles Away.

In a fit of anger that betrayed immense frustration the incumbent finance minister brushed aside the insinuations that the delay caused in finalisation of the Extended Fund Facility Programme of the IMF has anything to with Pakistan's nuclear programme and that there would be no compromise on this matter.

He emphasised that nobody has any right to tell Pakistan that what range of missiles it can have and what nuclear weapons it can have. He added that Pakistan maintains its own deterrence and it will continue to do so.

The bitterness that crept up in the utterance of these words is the outcome of an extreme cause of worry that the critical lifeline expected to come from the IMF is inordinately delayed. The finance minister pointed out that the probable cause of delay is that each time the review is like a new programme which is very uncustomary with the IMF. He mentioned that it has been an extensive engagement: unusual, too lengthy, too long, too demanding but that it is nearing completion.

Revealing one of the reasons behind the delay in the IMF agreement, he mentioned that at the time of previous reviews, certain friendly countries have made commitments to bilaterally support Pakistan. Now the IMF is now asking that they should actually complete and materialise those commitments and this is causing delay.

Despite consistent assurances given by Pakistani official finance managers it is well known that all is not well with the country's economic system. In this context it is pointed out that Pakistan's external sector vulnerabilities have plunged into a completely untenable situation and it is yet to be determined how the upcoming 10th and 11th reviews under the IMF programme will be accomplished by the end of June 2023.

The situation is so bad that it would require the IMF to remain associated with Pakistan for pretty long time to come. It is looking quite certain that the problems confronted by the country will remain in place for the upcoming budget and would require IMF's assistance to come to grips with them.

The external sector vulnerabilities are increasing by the day and apprehensions are there that point out to the surmounting difficulties that are staring in the face as no one knows how Pakistan would arrange $4 to $6 billion required to clear the containers stuck at the ports. This issue is very tricky and needs quick resolution and one of the solutions could be to open LCs for their release piece meal but the IMF would not...

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