Disrupt the status quo.

THREE years ago, Pakistan's economy shrank, and growth was at minus 0.5 per cent. The following year, 2020-21, the growth rate jumped up to 5.7pc, more than twice the initial target for that year set by the government. Call this the 'V-recovery' following Covid-19. Yet, even more remarkable, and unanticipated by every single economist, is the announcement that Pakistan is about to achieve 6pc GDP growth in the fiscal year which is about to come to an end this month. Moreover, this near 6pc growth is also considerably higher than the expected growth rate announced this time last year.

It is not often that government targets announced a year in advance are achieved in any single year, and here we have two consecutive years where the economy has grown considerably more than anticipated. Looking at these trends, at one level one can easily be misled into believing that Pakistan's economy was moving ahead very effectively and was poised for take-off yet again, with substantial developmental returns and with all the people of Pakistan benefiting through trickle-down neoliberal economics. Add to this the remarkable fact that Pakistan's per capita income is the highest it has ever been, and this line of argument gathers considerable credibility, notwithstanding the fact that we have not been given figures for inequality for many years.

Read more: Up the IMF creek

Yet, today, Pakistan's government lies begging at the feet of the IMF for financial assistance, for survival, for fear of going bankrupt and defaulting, as if the economy's growth evaporated in a matter of weeks. Something is very seriously wrong with Pakistan's economy.

Just these few facts reveal that there are fundamental flaws in Pakistan's economy, flaws which neither military governments, quasi-military governments, or those who claim electoral legitimacy, have been willing to address. Even if they are aware of these deep-seated structural issues, all governments are eager to avoid any serious economic reform, since these require serious commitment and willingness to take on numerous sets of vested interests, many of whom are direct or indirect supporters and are beneficiaries of government patronage and largesse. Every political arrangement is built on collaborators, whether from the polity or from property and capital, and undertaking reforms undermines these interests.

The economy is going to continue to be faced with multiple crises unless reforms which redistribute resources and...

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