Defining challenges.

Byline: Sakib Sherani

PAKISTAN is faced with a number of severe challenges that have been left unaddressed for far too long. The impact of these development challenges started becoming visible in linear increments in the 1990s, but now their impact is agglomerating. A thumbnail sketch of the main ones is presented below.

Population growth: Pakistan adds approximately 4.4 million people to its population each year, at the current growth rate. The annual addition is equivalent to the combined population of 40 of the smallest countries of the world, or the equivalent of the combined population of Slovenia, Latvia and Iceland each year. The country's population has doubled in the last 29 years (since 1991), and it is estimated by the UN that there will be 403m inhabitants by 2050, keeping Pakistan at fifth place in the world by population size.

Its high fertility rate, of over 3.5 births per woman compared to 2.4 for South Asia combined, has declined at a more modest pace than most of its developing country peers, and is propelling population growth. The rate of increase is untenable. The pressure rapid population growth is exerting on urban density, public services and physical infrastructure, quality of life, resources, availability of water etc. is becoming increasingly clear with every passing year.

It is propelling a dynamic of poverty, a poor quality of life, water stress, pollution and environmental degradation that is unsustainable.

Several critical development challenges stalk Pakistan's longer-term prospects.

Water: Pakistan's annual per capita water availability has declined to nearly 1,000 cubic metres - at just about the 'scarcity' threshold. In 2009, the per capita water availability in the country was around 1,500 cubic metres. Rising water scarcity is the most existential of all the challenges facing Pakistan. According to the World Resources Institute's 'Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas', Pakistan ranks 14th in terms of countries facing extremely high water risk (with India at number 13).

A large part of the decline in per capita availability is due to population growth and urbanisation, and at this rate, it is expected that per capita water availability will continue to drop precipitously unless urgent and concerted action is taken to rein in the runaway growth in population, promote the judicious and efficient use of water, and address the lack of water storage capacity.

The impact of water stress will not only be potentially...