A continuation of last year.

As 2022 draws to a close, we perform the familiar ritu al of celebrating the year gone by, while heralding the new one with the false promise of new beginnings. Wemake resolutions-to stop smoking, lose weight, find more time to relax-the same ones we've made before and failed to keep, hoping that this time will be different. But it takes more than a new page on the calendar to alter behaviour. And that's true for both people and the world we inhabit. After reading dozens of fanciful projections by political commentators about 'big' changes in store for 2023, offering a corrective note feels imperative. In many ways, 2023 will be nothing more than a continuation of 2022. In domestic politics and international affairs, the constants remain the same. Barring some dramatic unexpected events, things will slog on as they have been. Let's look at a few: Russia's war in Ukraine: Despite hopeful projections that Ukraine will decisively defeat Russia or that Putin's rule will end, neither are likely. Russia, though negatively impacted by sanctions and heavy losses in Ukraine, shows no sign of ending its assault.

And while the US provision of armaments has enabled Ukrainians to strike back, it has also exacerbated the conflict. Ukrainians and young Russian conscripts pay the biggest price-the former subjected to horrific attacks, the latter forced into service. This conflict will continue into 2023 with neither side ready or able to surrender or back away from their maximal demands. Europe, already reeling from an economic downturn and successive waves of refugees that have worsened internal fissures, will continue its rightward drift. Winter fuel shortages brought on by the war will continue to test the mettle of Europe's democratic institutions. Iran: Iranians, who have long chafed under the Ayatollahled regime's oppressive rule, engaged in inspiring and courageous mass demonstrations this year, but the repressive institutions of the state remain in control-and will continue to. Despite economic sanctions and the country's increasing isolation from the West, Iran's leadership has successfully found allies and markets for their oil (and weapons) reducing the prospects of either a new nuclear deal or a reduction in...