Climate change to cause dengue outbreaks in non-vulnerable high-altitude areas: Study.

ISLAMABAD -- Pakistan after receiving massive manifestations of spiking up global warming, the environmental degradation and shift in monsoon weather pattern and increased temperatures would face spread of dengue outbreaks in non-vulnerable high-altitude areas.

A study carried out by the scientists and experts from the Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Health Services Academy (HSA) and National Institute of Health (NIH) titled 'Modelling the impact of climate change on dengue outbreaks and future spatiotemporal shift in Pakistan' discussed significant impacts of climate change on the intensity and spread of dengue outbreaks. The research got published in a leading environmental and health journal Environmental Geochemistry and Health.

The much-needed research underlined a mix of outcomes highlighting rise and decline in the outbreak scenarios of dengue disease.

The study's aim was to assess the number of dengue transmission suitable days (DTSD) in Pakistan for the baseline (1976-2005) and future (2006-2035, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099) periods under Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios.

'Our findings also indicate that DTSD would spread across Pakistan, particularly in areas where we have never seen dengue infections previously. The good news is that the DTSD in current hotspot cities is projected to decrease in the future due to climate change.'

The research while indicating disease rise during the baseline period (1976-2005), identified the top ten hotspot cities with a higher frequency of DTSD namely Karachi, Hyderabad, Sialkot, Jhelum, Lahore, Islamabad, Balakot, Peshawar, Kohat, and...