Battle of survival - the world after coronavirus.

Byline: Ahsan Nisar

The New World Order implemented after the events of 9/11/2001 has changed after the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. The details of what the world might actually look like is still being determined, however, it is safe to assume that if there was a Before Covid (BC) world, then we are actually living in an After Covid (AC) world. The following will give the readers a glimpse as to how the AC times would look like:

* In games of great power rivalries, we may expect China to be more assertive and US to be more belligerent.

* Possible dismantling of global institutions.

* Economically, the situation could best be described as post-war mayhem.

* The avenues of trade, travel and technology will be redefined as the 'global village' turns to 'global hospital'.

* Massive societal changes will not be limited to 'social distancing' as we could see a rise in authoritarianism and ultra-nationalism.

* Confusion and conflict are likely possible'

In the wake of outbreak of coronavirus, Pakistan's initial economic losses in different sectors of the country's economy have been estimated at Rs1.3 trillion. These losses are going to be incurred on account of drop in the GDP growth because of reduction in services sector, including airline business and others, FBR's revenue loss, massive decline in imports, exports, reduction in remittances, disruption in food supplies and other fronts. The Planning Commission estimates that the size of the country's GDP stood at Rs44 trillion and one/fourth stood at Rs11 trillion, so the disruption caused by coronavirus was expected to cause at least 10 percent losses in the last quarter (April-June) that would stand at Rs1.1 trillion at least.

The tax machinery initially estimates that the lockdown of Karachi was going to cause major revenue losses and they were assessing that if it persisted till June 2020, then the tax losses would go up to Rs380 billion. The FBR has already been facing massive revenue shortfall before the virus despite slashing down the FBR's annual target from Rs5.555 trillion to Rs5.238 trillion. Earlier, the FBR had also requested the IMF for allowing further reduction in its envisaged target from Rs5.238 trillion to Rs4.8 trillion. Now the FBR is assessing further reduction in achieving the target by Rs380 billion, so it is estimating collection of just Rs4.4 trillion till June 2020.

The exports might face loss in the range of $2 to $4 billion as export orders had got canceled. The...