An undivided GCC is in Pakistan's favor.

Byline: Ahsan Nisar

In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt broke off diplomatic and transportation links with Qatar over its support for extremist groups. They imposed bans on shipping, trade, direct flights, overflights and land crossings with Qatar. After two years, Qatar appears economically to be the most resilient state in the Gulf in 2019, its links to the West and Washington in particular and remain strong and its reputation widely untarnished.

Doha is projected to generate a sizable surplus this year despite the blockade and could potentially provide financial support and confidence to Saudi's struggling economy. For Qatar, the blockade has been a blessing in disguise, allowing for more independent decision-making domestically and in terms of foreign policy. Reforms could be pushed through without having to de-conflict with its neighbours and new trade relations forged based on cost-efficiency and not neighbourly goodwill.

Now, signs of de-escalation have recently started to appear in the Gulf, suggesting that after more than two and a half years, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) could finally be moving towards a resolution. However, the apparent fading of Gulf tensions must be understood within the context of the war in Yemen, tension with Iran and the Trump administration's policies towards the Middle East. While there have been several developments that have affected the situation in the region and made it more conducive to renewed dialogue, it seems the September 14 drone attacks on the Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities have had a significant effect on Riyadh. They mark a turning point in Saudi foreign policy on many levels, including the GCC crisis.

The impact of the attack on Aramco was much bigger than the financial losses the company incurred as a result of the damage to its facilities and the temporary reduction of daily oil output. Regardless of where the drones came from - Yemen, Iraq or Iran - the fact...