ADB projects Pakistan economy to grow at 2% in fiscal year 2020-21.

ISLAMABAD -- The Asian Development Bank has projected Pakistan's economy, which is expected to contract by 0.4 percent in FY2020 (ending June 30 2020) as the COVID-19 outbreak further restricted economic activity, would regain some pace and grow at 2 percent in the upcoming fiscal year 2020-21.

"Pakistan's economy was on the path to recovery before COVID-19, and once the COVID-19 impact subsides, Pakistan will resume its efforts to address macroeconomic imbalances and initiate structural reform, likely holding economic growth to a projected 2.0% in FY2021," the ADB said in a regular supplement to its annual flagship economic publication, the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 released in April.

The supplement added that India's economy is forecast to contract by 4.0% in fiscal year (FY) 2020, ending on March 31 2021, before growing 5.0% in FY2021.

With respect to inflation rate, the ADB supplement suggested that inflation rate in Pakistan would remain at 11 percent as against the earlier projection of 11.5 percent in current fiscal year ending on June 30.

Similarly in next fiscal year, the inflation rate would remain 8 percent against the earlier projection of 8.3 percent.

It said overall the developing Asia would barely grow in 2020 as containment measures to address the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic hamper economic activity and weaken external demand, according to a new set of forecasts from the ADB.

ADB forecasts growth of 0.1% for the region in 2020 which is down from the 2.2% forecast in April and would be the slowest growth for the region since 1961.

Growth in 2021 is expected to rise to 6.2%, as forecast in April.

Excluding the newly industrialized economies of Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,China, developing Asia is forecast to grow 0.4% this year and 6.6% in 2021.

'Economies in Asia and the Pacific will continue to feel the blow of the COVID-19 pandemic this year even as lockdowns are slowly eased and select economic activities restart in a 'new normal' scenario,' said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada in a statement issued here.

'While we see a higher growth outlook for the region in 2021, this is mainly due to weak numbers this year, and this will not be a V-shaped recovery. Governments should undertake policy measures to reduce the negative impact of COVID-19 and ensure that no further waves of outbreaks occur.'

Risks to the outlook remain on...

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